What is the Over/Under on Mr. Matthews' Cholesterol?

On Sunday, Mr. Matthews' column included the incredibly morbid list of things he doesn't expect to live long enough to see. Since he doesn't plan on checking out for at least a few decades we here at FBM hope he works out a lot, or at least looks better in person than in his newspaper mugshot.

On the list:

The Buffalo Bills win a Super Bowl

I'll bet they have a pretty good chance once they move to LA, or NC, or wherever. With the current “leadership” of Ralph Wilson, his shuffleboard buddy Marv Levy, and proven loser Dick “But I went to Yale, I must be able to coach football,” Jauron, they have as much hope as Mr. Matthews writing a column without bullet points or lists.

My buddy Bud Selig make the Hall of Fame

I wasn't aware Messrs. Matthews and Selig had ever met, but all steroid scandals aside, Selig has been great for baseball. The wildcard and interleague play have both been tremendous, there has been franchise stability, and new ballparks are being built all over the country. According to their own press release major and minor league baseball have set attendance records each of the last two seasons. I think Mr. Selig gets to use the phrase “My Bitch, Bob Matthews.”

A major sports league reduce the number of games in the regular season...

In 1995, the Premiership (otherwise known as the fourth best attended sports league in the world) reduced the number of teams by two, which meant four less games for the remaining teams. I would make a bad joke about Mr. Matthews being born yesterday, but that would just be terrible.

The Buffalo Sabres win a Stanley cup...

They have gone deep into the playoffs twice in the past seven years, so this seems like a pretty bold statement. Someone just needs to pry Tommy G's wallet open a little wider.

The United States men's soccer team win a World Cup

Now, sometimes it may seem as if Mr. Matthews ignores facts, but even he must have noticed every single kid in Rochester playing soccer as they grow up. As the Tom Batzolds of the world retire or die off, soccer will receive more media attention, and these kids will be encouraged to continue on with soccer as they get older. I would say that the odds are decent that the USMNT will win the World Cup withing the next 30 years.

I think I found my mojo, men. Let's see what sort of shit BM's up to these days:

Several weeks ago, I annoyed some New York Yankees faithful by speculating that Jose Reyes and David Wright of the New York Mets might have the best left side of the infield in baseball in four or five years, taking over that distinction from future Hall of Famers Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees. It might happen much sooner than I thought.

BM is about to present a wealth of weak 2006 data to support his claim, but really, is half a year long enough to support this type of decision? Does anyone really think ARod will slug only .487 the whole year? Does anyone realize Derek Jeter's having a freaking good year, better than Jose Reyes' media-whoring performance? Remember when Jose Lima won 20 games -- yeah, things happen in the short term that end up being laughed at long term.

That being said, it's not that crazy to think the Mets' duo is as valuable as the Yankees', if only because of David Wright. If I had the choice of any of these four players for the next five years, hell, even three years, I'd go with David Wright -- that guy's a stud.

Jeter and Rodriguez — .308 batting average (166-for-539), 27 doubles, 3 triples, 20 home runs, 98 RBI, 259 total bases, 85 walks, 114 strikeouts, 22 stolen bases in 27 attempts, 17 errors.

Reyes and Wright — .318 batting average (196-for-617), 38 doubles, 13 triples, 26 HRs, 100 RBI, 338 total bases, 61 walks, 95 strikeouts, 45 stolen bases in 55 attempts, 16 errors.

Ow, my head hurts. Including all those numbers is retarded, but if you're going to do it, BM, how about a chart? Here's my version, with useful numbers and helpful formatting:

Name VORP VORPr FRAA
Jeter 34.7 .48 -5
ARod 21.3 .29 0
Reyes 31.9 .40 +6
Wright 39.7 .53 -7

VORP = runs above replacement relative to position
VORPr = per game rate
FRAA = fielding runs relative to positional average

It will be an upset if an American golfer wins this week's U.S. Women's Open, but recent history at least gives the U.S. players a chance. Since the start of the 2001 season, foreign players have won 19 of the 22 LPGA majors, including every Kraft Nabisco Championship, McDonald's Championship and British Open. But Americans managed to win three of the five U.S. Opens (Juli Inkster in 2002, Hilary Lunke in 2003 and Meg Mallon in 2004).

If I've learned anything from reading BM over the past two months, it's that foreign golfers (especially Koreans) dominate women's golf. I feel so informed.

Steve Finley and Reggie Sanders recently became the fifth and sixth members of baseball's exclusive 300-300 Club (at least 300 home runs and at least 300 stolen bases for their careers). The feat requires a combination of power, speed and longevity. But it hasn't been an automatic ticket to the Hall of Fame.

Instead of proceeding to lay out the obvious argument why it's not an automatic ticket (SBs mean shit and 300 HRs is a low cutoff point for the Hall), BM waxes nostalgic about two players he watched here in Rochester that he thought would be 300/300 performers. Neither made it.

Add Milwaukee's Carlos Lee to the list of outfielders the Yankees probably could have for pitching prospect Philip Hughes. If I were running a team with the money the Yankees have, I'd trade a young pitcher for a quality hitter for the stretch run without hesitation.

Why are we now adding Lee's name to that list? Because he's been on a tear? Wouldn't his increased performance make it less likely the Yankees could acquire him for their scrub pitching prospect? Perhaps BM meant to write "Add Milwaukee's Carlos Lee to the list of outfielders the Yankees will try to finagle away from another team because even they can recognize that hitting 25 HRs before the All-Star break is a good thing."

Sorry, Swiss soccer fans, but any team that goes 0-for-3 in a penalty shootout to settle a 0-0 draw doesn't deserve to advance in the World Cup or any other cup.

That's what you have to say about the World Cup? Screw that. How about the fact that the Ukraine/Switzerland was an awful game with both teams playing not to lose. How about commentary on the England match? How about an explanation why all the teams seem to be playing similar styles of soccer which comes across as slow, uncreative, and whiney? Or maybe your real idea was stolen by an economics geek: Freakonomics link.

The Revenge of Billy Beane

Scott Pitoniak, one of the Mantle-era Yankee obsessed sportswriters for the D&C published a fawning article about Greece Athena Senior to be Brian Dupra on Friday. Check out some “highlights”:

John Valle never brings a radar gun with him when he is checking out pitching prospects as a part-time scout for the New York Mets. Instead, the former Rochester Red Wings outfielder relies on the instincts he developed from 13 seasons as a professional baseball player. "I try to envision myself up at the plate against the pitcher," Valle says. "I'll ask myself, 'Could I hit this guy?'"

John Valle never made it to the majors, so his sole criterion is perhaps a little weak. If the Mets were looking for a former Red Wings player to make this judgment, maybe they should see what Stan Musial is up to.

Although his junior season was cut short by a strained throwing shoulder...

Sounds great! As long as he looks like a ballplayer, it should be awesome, right?

Valle is as impressed with Dupra's work ethic and maturity as he is with the live arm. The diamond isn't the only place Dupra excels. He's also an honor student who has acted in school plays and sung in select choir.

He sings choir? How fast can we sign him to a contract? The hell with things like striking people out or not having an injured shoulder, I am goddamn sold.

One of his greatest attributes is humility. He is beloved by his teammates and fellow students because he is so down-to-earth.
"He doesn't walk around school like he is better than everybody else," says Athena varsity coach Jason Bunting. "He is a very caring young man. He's the type of kid who will take time out to help out or encourage someone on the JV or modified team. As good a baseball player as he is, he's an even better person."

Fuck the JV team, I want my ace pitcher to be a mean bastard that will strike people out, brush hitters back, and throw Robin Ventura in a headlock and nail him with overhand rights when he charges the mound. Barry Bonds may be an asshole in the clubhouse, but I would still want him on my team.

Though Dupra's high school stats are impressive in several categories, they don't blow you away. He has a very respectable 1.97 earned-run average and great control — 92 strikeouts and just 21 walks in 89 innings. His 6-6 record with four saves would be better if he had received better support at the plate and in the field.

Stats? What are those? I thought we already decided that he was such a nice boy who deserved our support, and who could totally date our underage daughters because of his angelic choir voice.

Hey Robyn J. Kraft – learn how to write!

You see, Robyn, there are these cool new things called paragraphs, which you should probably learn how to use. Your article about the Rochester Twilight Criterium is severely lacking in them. Unless you are an award winning sports journalist like Mr. Matthews, you should stay away from the convenient question and answer format, because it really isn't too hard to string the facts in the press release together in the series of sentences that comprise the “paragraph”.

To the rest of you, please do not let Ms. Kraft's lackluster article deter you from attending the event, since it is a ton of fun. I would be attending myself if I wasn't going to be busy charring meat and drinking beer that night.

Nobody scores in the International League

A few days ago, Mr. Matthews wrote a column detailing his reasons to like the Red Wings. Since FCster is busy singing Celine Dion songs and driving all over the country, I am going to tell you what Mr. Matthews really should have written.

”Offense - Leads the 14-team IL with a .269 team batting average. Second in runs (260). Tied for 10th in home runs (32) but first in triples (20), second in doubles (117) and tied for first in total bases (772). The Wings don't walk a lot (159 walks rank 12th), but they don't often strike out (second-fewest 351).”

Starting from the last item, apparently Mr. Matthews didn't get my memo that strikeouts don't matter. One would think that a trained sports journalism professional would have figured that out by now. Maybe the only other baseball coverage he listens to is from Joe Morgan.

The Wings could be even better offensively if they had better plate discipline – a week after Mr. Matthews wrote his column, they still rank 12th in walks, and 11th in OBP. Despite playing home games in a pitching-friendly ballpark, they are tied for first in SLG even though they are 11th in home runs.

The 1-2-3 hitters in the lineup — Jason Tyner (.315), Jason Bartlett (.307) and Josh Rabe (.304) — are among the top nine batting averages in the IL.

Only one of them, Rabe, is among the top 20 in OBP. Bartlett has a pathetic eight walks!

Bullpen — The big surprise. It has been outstanding: ...Beau Kemp [and] Henry Bonilla ... have been solid set-up men for closer Pat Neshek ...

Beau Kemp has more walks than strikeouts. Henry Bonilla has an ERA of 4.93, above the IL average of 3.59.

Managing - Stan and pitching coach Stu Cliburn, his twin brother, have had a knack for knowing when to make pitching changes.

Do you have any evidence for this statement, Bob?

Attitude — Good chemistry.

I think that may be one of those evil intangibles that writers make up so they can praise people like Derek Jeter. A team of nine Barry Bonds' would hate each other, but score like a hundred runs a game.

Defense — It isn't great, but it isn't bad. The Wings have 44 errors through 56 games and rank sixth in fielding percentage.

Since we here at FBM support stats that actually mean something, I had FCster calculate defense efficiency ratio for the IL. He had to do a little fudging due to incomplete stats, but the Wings are fourth or fifth, at around 71.6%.

Mr. Matthews then lists some potential trouble spots, including Starting pitching — J.D. Durbin is pitching like the Twins expected him to in recent past seasons.

J.D. Durbin appears to be the beneficiary of solid defense, since he has only 1.44 strikeouts per walk. Look for his ERA to increase if he doesn't show better control.

Pete Munro is reliable.

Pretend it says below average there instead of reliable, since Munro's ERA is 4.08 compared to the league average of 3.59.

Tom Batzold really really hates soccer

This morning, while watching the England v. Paraguay match, I pull open my D & C to see what fine sports journalism I am paying for this morning. Would the lead article be a recap of the Rhinos match, the lady Rhinos match, or the thrilling 4-2 Germany win in the opening match of the World Cup?

Of course not, we get the most boring article of all time, a summary of the Bills' training camp schedule. In case you've forgotten, the Bills are a terrible team run by senile old men and coached by a proven loser. The Rhinos are the most successful franchise in Rochester history, and the World Cup is the most watched sporting event in the world.

In the “Hilarious news items” section, Mr. Batzold includes this:

Jim Armstrong in the Denver Post: “Sure sign No. 4,296 that you don't have a life: You plan to TiVo the World Cup, which comes in just ahead of you're in a NASCAR fantasy league and right behind your bid on Luis Gonzalez's used chewing gun on eBay.”

Hey Jim, according to FIFA there were 28.8 billion viewers over the 25 days of the last world cup. I guess that makes for a lot of losers, huh? Did you and little Tommy Batzold get cut from the same under 6 soccer team back in the day?

Self-Plagiarism?

I don't have time right now to check the archives, but I swear this paragraph from yesterday's BM column was used in a prior column:

It won't be a surprise if a South Korean will win this week's McDonald's LPGA Championship. There have been 13 LPGA tournaments this year, and the 11 foreign winners include six different South Koreans — Hee-Won Han, Joo Mi Kim, Mi Huyn Kim, Meena Lee, Seon Hwa Lee and Sung Ah Yim. They're all headed to Rochester for the Wegmans LPGA at Locust Hill June 22-25.

Is anyone here a Marine Biologist Sports Journalist?

From Mr. Batzold's hilarious news items section:

Mike Lupica in the New York Daily News: "Has there ever been a time when two different horses won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness and neither one of them made it to the Belmont?"

What the hell are you asking me for? I'm a scientist. Too bad we don't have a trained sports journalism professional who could look up the answer.

What exactly is that sentence about anyway? It isn't funny, and I'm pretty sure it isn't an ironic observation by Mr. Lupica that he can do absolutely no work and still get garbage published. We need to bring peer review to the media.

I'm not sure if FCster knows where the train station is, but I am sure BM doesn't know much about baseball

FCster didn't write this column like he promised, so I will give it a shot.

In Sunday's Paper, Mr. Matthews gives his baseball first quarter report , and it gets off to a rough start:

”American League Most Valuable Player — Derek Jeter (New York), with Jim Thome (Chicago) close behind. Jeter has never won an MVP award, but Mr. Intangible...”

I know Mr. Matthews is planning a “strong” argument when intangibles come out in the second sentence. Can we talk about productive outs, “smart” play, clutch situations, and playing in the pressure of NYC too?

”...is off to a terrific start offensively and defensively this season.”

True, Jeter is off to a relatively terrific start, with his .427 OBP and .493 SLG both being the second best of his career. However, Jeter ranks 6th in the league in on-base percentage, 33rd in slugging, and his pathetic 5 home runs is tied for 57th with perpetual whipping boy Tony Batista. MVP of the league? He isn't even the MVP of his team – that would be Jason Giambi with his league leading .448 OBP.

”Thome leads the AL in HRs and RBI ...”

Huh, those sound like pretty good reasons to be considered the leading MVP candidate. He also is leading the league in slugging, OPS, and runs created, and is second in walks. Maybe being prettier than Thome is the intangible Mr. Matthews was talking about, since Jeter is behind in all the important stats. BS like this is why Jeter is the most overrated player of all time.

Mr. Matthews goes on to talk about various other categories: ”Top flop starting rotation — Minnesota, with veterans Brad Radke, Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse. Their combined pitching line: 8-16 record; 8.13 ERA; 144 innings; 222 hits allowed (including 35 HRs). “

I would argue that this would be the top managerial flop, since Ron Gardenhire kept putting these guys out there when they weren't getting the job done instead of turning to Liriano and Boof earlier. You can check out FCsters in depth coverage of the issue here. While I am insulting Mr. Gardenhire, he also lets Rondell White, Tony Batista, and Juan Castro try to hit. Does anyone else think he might be a saboteur secretly working for the White Sox?

”Teams most likely to improve — Toronto...in the AL.”

Toronto is playing right at their expected wins level; their offense is excellent, but their pitching is mediocre. They are 9th in the league in ERA despite having the third best defense efficiency ratio. The only way I can see them improving is if they cut down on walks allowed (9th in the AL).

”Team most likely to slip — Cincinnati, with too little quality pitching and too many undisciplined hitters. “

OK, so they do have too little quality pitching, but undisciplined hitting? The Reds are second in the NL with 230 walks, so I can only assume Mr. Matthews meant “too many hitters that strike out a lot.” Note to Mr. Matthews: Strikeouts and all outs are virually equivalent in terms of negative run expectancy. Check out this handy chart. After that, look at the at bats per strikeout career leaderboard and let me know how many of your all time greatest 24 are on that list.

”Most costly injuries — Broken wrists for OF Hideki Matsui (New York AL) and 1B Derrek Lee (Chicago NL). If the Yankees don't make the playoffs, their fate was sealed on May 11, when they lost their steadiest and most underappreciated player.”

What the hell does steadiest mean? If you mean best, that would be Giambi, and he is still playing.

”The Cubs have been among baseball's worst hitting teams since Lee went down and probably won't have time to make a bid for the playoffs when he returns. “

Those are all true statements, but ignore the fact that the Cubs can't pitch either. Woods and Prior being perpetually injured are way more damaging to the club.